《注意經濟》

[Guest]

Federal surplus hits $10 billion
Eric Beauchesne, Canwest News Service
Published: Friday, March 28, 2008

OTTAWA - The federal government was running a $10 billion surplus 10
months into the current fiscal year just ending, only $200 million shy of
the surplus projected for the full year, the Finance Department reported
Friday.

The surplus was also only $600 million less than chalked up over the same
period a year earlier, during which the government took in nearly $14
billion more than it spent.

The still fat surplus is despite the recent slowdown in the economy and
after deducting the cost of the personal income tax cuts that were
announced in last fall's economic update and made retroactive to the start
of the 2007 tax year.

At least on major financial institution, however, has forecast the projected
sharp slowdown in the economy will erode the surplus in the coming year
and eventually push the government back into the red for the first time in
a decade the following fiscal year.

TD Bank's latest economic projections see the government suffering a
$1.1 billion shortfall in the 2009-10 fiscal year, rather than posting what
the government still projects will be a $1.3 billion surplus that year. That
would also be down from what the government projects will be a $2.3
billion surplus in the 2008-09 fiscal year, which begins Tuesday.

The surplus for the month of January, meanwhile, was only $600 million -
a quarter of the $2.4 billion the previous January, reflecting declines in
revenues in personal income tax and in the GST, where the rate was cut
to five per cent from six per cent, and higher spending by federal
departments and agencies and increased transfer payments.

Over the first 10 months of the 2007-08 fiscal year, program spending was
up a hefty 7.2 per cent or $10.8 billion to $160.5 billion. The increase in
spending was only marginally offset by a $400 million dip in debt
payments. Revenues, meanwhile, rose by 5.2 per cent or $9.7 billion to
$198..4 billion thanks to higher revenues, especially from corporate
income taxes.

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=f6871ea3-15cc-42fc-b650-df282aad046e&k=93667

[Guest]

花旗：美經濟衰退 將衝擊亞洲
【經濟日報╱陳盈羽】

過去經濟學家高喊了許久的亞洲與美國經濟脫勾（de-coupling），今年還有效嗎？花旗
環球對亞洲目前出口減緩、通貨膨脹率卻高漲的情形感到十分憂慮，認為亞洲今年將面臨
2001年來首次的經濟成長減緩窘境。豐證券也認為，亞洲的經濟風暴，開始漸漸形成
了。

中、印、越 防禦力較薄弱

花旗環球認為，金融環境緊縮仍會持續拖累美國和其他經濟體，雖然聯準會的大幅降息動
作對經濟衰退的情形有些許幫助，但是未來仍有太多的不確定性。花旗預估美國今、明兩
年的經濟成長率將分別為0.8%和0.9%，聯準會未來數月還有機會將利率降至1.0%，
而歐洲央行也將跟進，同時預估美元貶值至第四季會以和緩的態勢進行。

亞洲經濟目前面臨的最大問題，就是通貨膨脹率節節高升，這也可以解釋為何近期中國、
台灣、新加坡和越南的貨幣大幅升值。由於緊縮政策短期將持續進行，因此亞洲經濟成長
危機即將發生。花旗預估，來自美國經濟衰退的影響，5、6月左右將在亞洲發酵，而在
亞洲經濟成長開始減緩之際，整體的通貨膨脹率也會開始下滑，讓花旗看到下半年亞洲央
行降息的可能性。

花旗強調，若以上預估都成真，今年將會是亞洲自2001年來第一年見到成長減緩的情
形，將亞洲經濟和股市置入一個全新的挑戰中。預期大宗物資和農產品出口國，以及財政
政策較具彈性的國家，較有機會倖免於難。

在中國、印度和越南可能見到較大的國內金融市場危機，因為這些國家過去幾年的經濟成
長和信用擴張較快速，同時以上三個國家由於外部赤字和向外借貸的金額較大，對全球景
氣衰退的防禦能力也較弱。

在進口價格上揚、出口又因為貨幣升值而獲利受損的情形下，花旗環球亞太區策略分析師
樂志勤（Markus Rosgen）認為，在進口價格上揚速度比貨品出口價格還要快上好幾倍
的情形下，亞洲整體每股稅後盈餘可能會出現衰退的情形。

亞洲信貸市場 成長恐趨緩

豐證券也認為，全球的信貸市場也持續緊縮，另外，在亞洲的通貨膨脹率非常嚴重，例如
中國的2月消費者物價年成長率為8.7%，是過去11年來成長最快速的一次，新加坡的通
貨膨脹更是25年來最嚴重一次，代表亞洲大部分央行在外銷減緩的同時，都必須要持續
升息，使過去幾年來因為內需成長而蓬勃的亞洲信貸市場面臨成長趨緩，中國今年的經濟
成長率預估更將降到9.7%。

不過豐證券對亞洲今年的經濟發展較為樂觀，認為會比2001年時還要好，主要有四個原
因：經濟成長率較高、科技業表現較好、信貸成長較強勁，以及對在非亞洲市場的經貿成
長，這些因素可望使在2001年時受影響最大的出口和固定資產受到一定的支撐。

同時，2001年時，大多數的亞洲國家仍尚未從亞洲金融風暴中完全康復，而現在大多數
的亞洲國家經常帳出超、高外匯存底和良好的財務結構，而美國金融圈的次貸風暴對亞洲
的影響似乎也有限，使今年的亞洲經濟成長確定會高於美國

http://udn.com/NEWS/STOCK/STO7/4279091.shtml

[Guest]

Germany's BaFin sees global financial crisis losses up to 600 bln usd - report
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/03/30/afx4830495.html


信貸損失有多大？德國：6000億美元 高盛：1.2兆美元
鉅亨網程宜華．綜合外電
2008 / 03 / 31 星期一 11:40

幾個月來，專家們一直討論著全球的金融危機將會延燒到什麼時候。德國的金融監管局
(Bafin)公開表示，在一切混亂結束之前，全球的金融機構的損失恐怕將高達6000億美
元。

根據《明鏡周刊》報導，德國金融監管局 (Bafin)在一份長達16頁的報告中提到，從美
國次貸危機引爆的市場風波，在最壞的情況下將造成全球金融業6000億美元的損失。不
過以目前的市場來看，可能的損失數字已達4300億美元。

報告指出，目前全球銀行業確定已知的虧損金額為2950億美元，其中德國的銀行就佔了
10%，在最壞的情況下，德國銀行的虧損將高達 600億美元。 而德國金融監管局的專
家也擔憂這一波金融風暴將危及總體經濟，更會影響到非銀行體系的避險基金、保險公司
和退休基金等。

瑞銀 (UBS)也在月初時發佈報告指出，次貸風暴重創銀行、券商及保險公司，預計全球
金融機構將面臨至少6000億美元的次貸相關損失。截至 3月初，全球公佈的信貸損失及
資產減記總額已超過1810億美元。

高盛證券 (GS-US)在上周表示，美國華爾街的信貸損失可能高達4600億美元，而全球
金融業的總虧損恐怕將攀上 1.2兆美元。

[Guest]

李嘉誠房市套現 踢到鐵板
【經濟日報╱記者陳慧敏／綜合報導】

2008.04.01 03:32 am


長實集團主席李嘉誠3月初降價求售首都大樓物件，短短兩天銷售2,000套，套現港幣
100億元，並鼓吹購房者改為即時付款，加速套現速度。香港金管局總裁任志剛上周要求
銀行停止「前兩、三年供息不供本」型貸款產品，打亂李嘉誠套現動作，為香港房市拉響
警報。

香港媒體解讀，金管局此舉與首都大樓套現有關，是擔憂購房者盲目入市，日後還不起房
屋貸款，重蹈美國次貸風暴的覆轍。

香港金管局在3月19日無預警宣布，下令銀行停止提供首二年或三年的「供息不供本」的
貸款商品，由於愈來愈多香港銀行提供這項貸款，為了避免銀行未來必須承擔過大的違約
風險，因此宣布停止這類產品，已批出的不受此限。

香港房市今年初以來，隨著美國次貸問題延燒，成交量也嚴重萎縮，香港房地產商想盡辦
法促銷。長實集團在將軍澳的「首都大樓」是今年的重點樓盤，由李嘉誠拍板定案，將定
價從每呎港幣5,800元，調低到4,888元，短短兩天內，銷售出2,000多套房，銷售九成
五，套現超過港幣100億元。

為了加速套現，長實集團旗下的貸款策略公司尚乘財富公司在購屋一周之內，說服買家將
付款方式，從建築期才開始付貸款，轉為即時起付款。也就是說，原貸款方式是頭期款付
兩成到兩成五，物業完工才開始繳納房貸。即時付款是先繳納5%頭期款，60天後，開始
繳納房貸，可享有減價5%優惠及36個月延期還本優惠。

香港金管局上周突然叫停「供息不供本」貸款產品，尚乘財富公司也不得不緊急取消延期
還本的優惠。

香港媒體引述工銀亞洲董事兼副總經理黃遠輝表示，首兩、三年供息免供本的貸款產品，
是去年8月港股暴升，樓市看好時才盛行起來，愈來愈多銀行推出這類房貸產品，難怪金
管局擔憂這些優惠將吸引低收入或無能力購屋的人盲目入市。

http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FINS2/4281702.shtml

[Guest]

European banks see $23 billion subprime hit
UBS expects losses of $19 billion; Deutsche Bank sees $4 billion loss

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23897083

[Guest]

April 3, 2008
Wall Street Stocks to Fall at Opening
By LESLIE WINES

The latest jobless claims report also could keep stocks under pressure.
The Labor Department reported that the number of people applying for
unemployment benefits in the latest week rose by a full 38,000 to
407,000, the highest level since September 2005. The less volatile
four-week average of claims increased by 15,750 to 374,500.

The report comes just a day before the much-awaited March employment
report. It should fuel concerns about deterioration in the labor market and
keep the recession fears in the forefront.

The Institute for Supply Management will put out its March survey of the
services sector at 10 a.m. That poll is expected to produce a headline
reading of 50.1, which would represent an improvement over 49.3 in
February. Readings over 50 indicate expansion so the projected result
would indicate that the services sector has begun to grow again.

The futures contract for the Dow Jones industrial average fell 55 points, or
0.4 percent, to 12,564. Futures contracts for the Standard & Poor's 500
index fell 7.60 points, or 0.5 percent, at 1,363.30 and Nasdaq 100 futures
declined 17 points, or 1.1 percent, to 1,845.2.

On Wednesday, stocks closed lower due to investor worries that a sharp
jump in oil prices could be another sign that consumers are under stress
and that the economy has entered a recession.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gHs5OM3gFG_DytQQZFbWfgPT08MAD8VQD7PO1

[Guest]

Low-cost carrier Skybus calls it quits

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23962964/
Skybus Airlines, a low-cost airlines that began flying from Gary/Chicago
International Airport less than a month ago, will fly its last flight Friday.

The third airline, after Aloha & ATA, ceased flying.

[Guest]

ATA航空破產 數千乘客跳腳

由於意外失去重要的包機業務，以及不斷上漲的油價衝擊，美國第十大航空公司ATA航
空3日突然宣布破產，並停止全部營業，數千名已經購票乘客陷入困境。

這次是ATA航空在三年時間內，第二次宣布破產。也是最近兩周內，第二樁航空公司破
產事件。已經有60年歷史的夏威夷阿羅哈航空（Aloha）上月申請破產保護，並於4月1
日正式停止營運。ATA公司發言人稱，公司現有2200名員工，已經「事實上全部」失
業。

很多ATA的乘客3日到了機場辦票櫃台，才被告知航空公司停業消息。據航空公司透露，
在關閉營運前，每天搭機旅客超過一萬名。自2006年ATA航空脫離了上一次破產重組之
後，積極開拓軍用包機業務，在承接海外軍事人員及眷屬的接送業務中，占了很大的比
率。由於和聯邦快遞（FedEx）之間一份重要的包機業務將在今年10月，政府2009會計
年度開始的時候到期，公司方面無力維持現有經營。

穆迪投資服務（Moody's）的分析師認為，這種狀況也反映出航空業目前的困境：高漲
的油價、勞資糾紛、乘客增長的不足以及高度的競爭。不斷上揚的油價和放緩的經濟，會
將更大型的航空企業推向懸崖邊緣。

嚴酷的經營狀況，也迫使航空業出現併購熱潮。達美航空（Delta）及西北航空
（Northwest）的合併談判，正受阻於兩家機師工會的分歧之中。

ATA航空經營了約50條商業航班，主要集中在夏威夷至加州奧克蘭、洛杉磯、鳳凰城及
拉斯維加斯四個城市。由於ATA及西南航空（Southwest）在往返夏威夷的航線上協議
代碼共享，西南航空也正為已購票的旅客辦理簽轉，盡可能接近原始的出發時間，今後
14天內搭機的乘客，享有優先。

http://udn.com/NEWS/WORLD/WOR6/4286917.shtml

[Guest]

工商時報 2008.05.16　
美快遞業 撙節成本度難關
蕭麗君／綜合外電報導

　華爾街日報週四報導，原本樂觀預測今年快遞業可望復甦的聯邦快遞與優比速，發
現他們正處在風暴中心，而且還可能惡化。在經濟疲弱與油價攀升拖累下，前景不確定性
升高，也迫使這兩家快遞業者必須靠撙節成本來度過難關。

　零售支出與房市是驅動運輸業成長的兩大動力，然而由於低迷不振，壓縮這些快遞
公司的核心業務。加上油價節節升高，至今不見走跌，也在侵蝕他們的營收。

　聯邦快遞上週指出，自從3月份以來，他們的燃油支出已經增加1億美元。此外擁有
較大卡車車隊的優比速，也透露上季的燃油成本新增3.34億美元。

　此外，長久以來為快遞業新獲利的最大動能來源-國際快遞業的成長，也因為亞洲在
因應美國疲弱需求而降低產能下，呈現減緩跡象。

　這樣的晦暗前景也對始於夏季的運輸旺季，增添不確定性。

　面對市場緊縮，聯邦快遞與優比速則致力於撙節成本，來因應快遞業在秋天開始的
旺季。秋季開始的旺季有許多規模較小與較輕的產品藉由飛機與卡車送達。以為年終採購
旺季進行準備。

　不過產業主管、分析師與貨運公司都對今年旺季看法抱持謹慎態度，預估可能與去
年一樣出現旺季不旺的現象。去年因為消費支出疲弱，因而無法有效提振貨運數量。

　SJ Consulting集團分析師辛德爾表示，「對2008年而言，要維持獲利與保護業務
的方式，是確保成本盡可能緊縮」，他強調今年快遞業，恐怕無法倚賴營收成長來增加獲
利能力。

　即使是藉由網路購物而快速擴張的快遞業務，也開始出現自相矛盾情況。

　根據Forrester Research為網路零售產業團體Shop.org所做調查顯示，扣除旅
遊相關費用，網路銷售今年將成長16.7％至2040億美元。

　然而美國電子商務的貨物運送數量大增，對於親自把包裹送到家門口的聯邦快遞與
優比速而言，其運輸成本將大幅增加。 　為解決該項問題，這兩家業者調高住宅區的年
度運送費率，至於偏遠地區也增加了附加費用而把多出成本轉嫁到消費者身上。


FedEx and UPS Still Wait For Recovery to Arrive
BY COREY DADE


FedEx Corp. and United Parcel Service Inc. early this year forecast that
the economic downwind soon would change course, generating a recovery
in the delivery business.

Instead, the shipping companies have found themselves at the center of a
storm that threatens to worsen. The retail-spending slump and the
housing-market collapse -- two of the strongest drivers of shipments of
manufactured goods and materials -- have drained the companies' core
business. Rising oil prices are eroding their revenues and show no signs of
ebbing.

FedEx, of Memphis, Tenn., last week cited a $100 million increase in fuel
spending since March.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&refer=home&sid=a47LjRtOU3c0

[Guest]

美國（大陸航空）準備裁撤三千多員工
2008-06-05 21:05:18　劉剛

由於燃油價格上漲跟財務吃緊，美國（大陸航空）準備裁撤三千多員工。

美聯社說，美國（大陸航空）準備今年第四季裁撤一成一員工，相當於三千多名員工，
此外（大陸航空）也準備讓六十七架飛機停飛。為共體時艱，（大陸航空）執行長跟總裁
雙雙宣佈，他們從現在起到今年年底，將不領薪水也不分紅。

（大陸航空）全球主要航空公司之一，有四百四十二架飛機。

By MICHELINE MAYNARD
Published: June 6, 2008

Continental Airlines said Thursday that it would cut 3,000 jobs and retire
67 Boeing aircraft, becoming the latest airline to announce capacity
reductions in the face of high prices for jet fuel.

Continental’s announcement came a day after United Airlines said it was
discontinuing Ted, its low-fare airline, cutting 1,100 more jobs on top of
previously announced cuts and retiring a total of 100 aircraft. Delta Air
Lines and American Airlines have announced similar steps.

Continental’s move, which equals a 16 percent reduction in its capacity,
had been rumored in industry circles on Wednesday. The details came in a
message to employees from Continental’s chief executive Lawrence W.
Kellner and its president, Jeffery A. Smisek.

The airline, based in Houston, said Mr. Kellner and Mr. Smisek would not
accept their salaries for the rest of 2008. Continental’s shares were up
more than 9 percent in mid-morning trading.

“The airline industry is in a crisis,” the two executives said in the message
to employees. “Its business model doesn’t work with the current price of
fuel and the existing level of capacity in the marketplace. We need to
make changes in response.”

Continental said that at current prices, it would pay $2.3 billion more for
jet fuel than in 2007 — or about $50,000 per employee. It said that “a
large number” of its flights were losing money, and that fare increases had
not been enough to cover the higher fuel costs.

“As fares increase, fewer customers will fly,” the executives said, meaning
the airline needs to cut flights, eliminate planes and reduce jobs to match
lower demand.

Continental said it would give details next week of the flights that will be
cut or eliminated. Because of the reduced flight schedule, it said it needed
3,000 fewer employees, and would offer programs to encourage workers
to leave.

It said it expected most employees would leave voluntarily, although there
would be some layoffs. Most of the departures will take place in the fall,
although some management and clerical employees will leave sooner, the
airline said.

Continental, which has already retired six Boeing 737 aircraft this year,
said it would retire another 67 planes through 2009. It said 27 would be
removed in September and the rest by the end of next year.

However, Continental said it would continue to take deliveries of new,
more fuel-efficient Boeing 737 aircraft this year and next year. The net
reduction in its fleet will be 31 planes by the end of 2009, when it will have
344 aircraft, the airline said.

Continental broke off merger discussions with United in late April, saying
its directors thought the deal would not be in Continental’s best interests.
The two airlines are discussing whether to form a code-sharing alliance
similar to an arrangement Continental has with Delta and Northwest
Airlines.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/06/business/06air.html?ref=business

[Guest]

中國變了　台商大逃亡

二○○八年農曆年前，中國往香港的關口，出現了一群群台商，他們不告而別，拋下工廠
與員工，踏上返鄉歸路，掀起了海峽開放二十多年來，最大的一次台商遷徙；昔日台商的
逐夢天堂，已經變成了殘酷戰場。

文／呂國禎、尤子彥

安ㄋㄟ走轉來台灣，阮心內嘛是掙扎真久，才落決心……。」今年四十出頭的台商陳老闆
談起棄守中國工廠，逃回台灣的決定，嘆了一口氣。剛說完，泡茶矮桌旁的開水壺的水正
好滾開來，嗚嗚的笛聲一聲比一聲急促，呼應著主人遲遲未能平復的心情。

四月十四日，記者來到台南近郊的從事鏡框加工業陳老闆家中。三層樓的透天厝，一樓原
本是陳太太經營護膚紋眉八坪店面，現在，成為地上堆滿眼鏡半成品的客廳工廠。

今年農曆年前，陳老闆兩兄弟丟下中國東莞價值新台幣一千五百萬元的機器設備和上千萬
待加工的原料、一百五十多個中國工人，兩人先後「逃回」台灣。七年心血放水流，
陳老闆想起來還是捨不得。

他，七年前前進東莞　一年大賺三成，以為找到事業第二春
一邊把茶壺中蜷曲的茶葉渣倒出來，陳老闆一邊感嘆：「人說留底台灣等死，去中國赴
死，阮這擺真正係去赴死ㄟ（台語：留在台灣等死，去中國赴死，我這次真的是去死的）。

七年前，陳老闆在考察中國市場三年後，配合的上游眼鏡廠紛紛到廣東東莞設廠，在台灣
眼鏡加工業打滾十六年的兄弟倆帶著積蓄到中國創業設廠。一開始獲利還算豐厚，約新台
幣三千五百萬元的投資額，光在二○○三年這一年，就大賺一千五百萬元，有近三成的獲
利率，工廠最忙的時候請了兩百個中國勞工。兄弟倆以為，終於在對岸覓得事業第二春。

但好景不常，七年來，當地的投資條件持續不斷惡化。

先是二○○四年之後，由於外資大量湧進，東莞開始出現缺工潮，勞力供給缺口越來越
大，工資跟著水漲船高。陳老闆用的工人，工資從七年前的月薪人民幣三百八十元
（約合新台幣一千六百元），到今年初漲幅達三．五倍。外加的保險、伙食與住宿費等雜
支也因物價上漲增加至少四成。

更要命的是，三年前人民幣實施匯改以來，迄今已大幅升值一五％。對屬加工外銷形態的
台商來說，每一道考驗都直接侵蝕獲利。

去年底第一次動念離開　盤算三個月決定放棄，「看袂到未來」

但最讓陳老闆心寒的，則是當地的勞工。陳老闆說，十年前中國的勞工得透過村書記的關
係才能謀得一職，就連只是進入工廠面試，還要塞給門口保安人民幣十元的紅包。但這幾
年勞力市場供需改變，員工態度大不如前，工廠發薪水的隔天，一百個人裡至少有十幾個
不來上班。工資上揚，工作效率卻下降，以前一天八小時一個人可以做一百打眼鏡，現在
做個八十打就喊累。

還有更惡劣的員工，一個大男人一聲跪在你面前開始飆淚，說父親往生要回內地奔喪，好
心借他錢，隔天竟跑來工廠門口幫別家廠搶員工，把老闆當笨蛋耍。「相信他們的理由十
次，總有十一次會被騙，」陳老闆苦笑說。

陳老闆一位朋友的工廠更扯，明明設計用右手操作的切割機台，卻發生員工左手被機器切
過的事故，資方賠了幾十萬醫療費。狀況層出不窮，讓陳老闆面對保障勞工權益更完整的
「勞動合同法」，有著極深的擔憂。

去年十月，陳老闆看到中央電視台跑馬燈、手機簡訊內容出現大量有關「勞動合同法」的
宣傳，察覺氣氛不對。台商圈老闆為了勞資糾紛上法院的消息越來越多，有些城鎮甚至傳
出工廠老闆連夜「落跑」的風聲。讓陳老闆兄弟第一次動念離開。

兄弟倆連夜落跑　丟下三千萬資產，分頭搭機逃回台灣

認識陳老闆十年，從事眼鏡貿易的孫先生觀察，陳老闆工廠的產品在業界算是有競爭力
的，也持續升級，每隻鏡框平均出貨單價從原本的新台幣十五元，現在已經能做到八十元
的中高檔鏡框。然而這都無助於此時的困頓。

盤算了三個月，陳老闆兩兄弟決定放棄，「總共一句，看袂到未來啦！」他說，人跑出來
什麼都好說，「如果你人留在那裡，想結束工廠，那就等著直接被扣起來問口供了，」他
估算，反正工廠的土地不是他的，一走了之，丟下三千多萬資產認賠殺出，不過是回到七
年前的原點。但如果留在那邊，不管是繼續經營或收掉，補稅、查稅還有環保規費，至少
還得從台灣拿一千五百萬過去。

即便如此，能不能全身而退還不知道 。

為了避人耳目，兄弟倆分批行動。今年一月三十一日，陳老闆通宵把最後一批貨趕出去，
確認最後一筆帳進來，即刻展開逃跑行動。

一早五點整，弟弟開著豐田車，送哥哥到離工廠十分鐘車程的通寶巴士車站，直達香港機
場。一路上，兩人沒多說什麼，陳老闆不願回頭再望一眼過去七年苦心打拚的成果。隔
天，二月一日，弟弟也同樣搭港龍KA432早班從香港飛高雄班機回台灣。

「踏上中國那片土地，整個人就要變成一隻刺蝟，什麼事都要從不相信出發，」陳老闆認
清中國這個人治的環境，沒有政府奧援的中小企業，注定要當沒根的浮萍。「你問我走這
一遭值不值得，我會說值得，但一次就夠了！」當他上網瀏覽關於廣東台商爆發逃亡潮的
新聞，陳老闆說：「阮ㄟ決定絕對是正確，提早離開一定卡贏。」

老闆落跑後的工廠，而今如何？場景從台灣台南，轉到東莞。

記者重回工廠現場　村管委也氣得想找他討工人資遣費

四月十五日，採訪完陳老闆的隔天，本刊另一組記者在東莞台商協會協助下，深入這座老
闆落跑失蹤的眼鏡工廠現場。這是一座三層樓高，總坪數約只有三至五百坪的老舊加工
廠，興建時間超過十年。現在，眼鏡廠招牌已被拆下，改成電子零件加工廠。新老闆是中
國籍的福建老闆。門口站著警衛，停車場也停著車子，裡面顯然已重新復工。

記者舉起相機正準備拍照的同時，工廠警衛揚起雙手大喊不准拍照，當記者表明來意說是
陳老闆台灣來的朋友，警衛更斥喝：「陳老闆跑了，工廠已經不是他的了！」隨即拿起電
話通報。幾分鐘後，出面的是當地村管委會的人，「你要找陳老闆是吧？我們也想找他，
也正在找他！」他憤怒的說，陳老闆跑了，工廠丟著不管，工人資遣費也沒發，還是村管
委會幫忙處理的。「賣掉了工廠設備還不夠，他欠我們二十萬！」村管委越說越氣憤。


面臨關鍵存亡戰　二十年前的投資天堂，現在滿是地雷

一件事情，兩造陳述；陳老闆有他的苦，村管委有他的憤。

陳老闆不是特例，光是他所在的城鎮，已經有二十個老闆用同樣的方式離開中國，他是二
十分之一，這個城鎮只是東莞市二十八個鎮中的一個，又是二十八分之一，他們都是從去
年底至今台商遷徙潮當中的一個個的小波浪。

中國政府前所未有的閃電政策，改變了二十年的台商歷史；新稅改、新勞工與新外貿規定
去年六月之後一個個快速執行，竟然帶來大罷工、大關廠、集體逃亡與遷徙同時出現。對
許多台商來說，中國已不是投資天堂，他們正面臨二十年來最大的一次生死存亡之戰。台
商遷徙像是流行病一樣快速蔓延，據《南方都市報》報導，已經有一萬家工廠因此而倒
閉。

一九八七年，台灣開放至中國探親，台灣商人受困於台灣人工、土地與匯率大漲下，開始
游走海峽兩岸，拿著不同的護照經由香港當起了海峽邊緣人。當年十一月，《商業周刊》
創刊號以此為開始，製做「海峽邊緣人」專題。

當年台灣的「玩具王國」、「雨傘王國」……等，隨著一座座工廠隔海移到中國。中南部
傳統產業為主的工業區逐漸人去樓空，台灣穿著夏威夷衫、燙著電棒燙頭髮、腋下夾著小
包的台商，在彼岸開疆拓土，一年只能回台灣的家兩、三趟。

二○○○年，我們又深入珠三角與大上海，記錄這批台商的發展成績，當時他們事業達到頂
峰，在深圳、東莞與中山等地建立一個又一個「世界第一」；那一年，我們也跟隨台商的
腳步從珠三角轉進長三角，深入昆山報導台商最大的電子聚落。

第二個十年來了！四月十三日，我們的採訪隊伍再度走進珠江三角洲、同時前往越南，進
行為期兩星期的採訪，唏噓的是，這次我們是為了記錄這一場台商史上最大規模的逃亡與
遷徙潮。

廢廠變成難民營　男女民工混居，就地煮飯、洗澡

進中國深圳公明鎮的第一幕就讓我們驚心動魄：

一家今年過年前才倒閉的台商工廠，工廠機器從底座挖起，被當成廢鐵賣光了，留下凌亂
不堪廢廠房，缺水斷電。我們造訪時，工廠裡面住進一群民工，男男女女都有，他們住在
斷水斷電的荒廢工廠內，用木頭搭床、蚊帳為牆，就地埋鍋造飯。這幕讓人錯亂身於何
處？對比牆上的生產安全標語、追求進度與效率的管制表，形成鮮明與強烈的諷刺。天黑
前，還可看到這群民工聚集在唯一有水的水龍頭前，穿著內褲，拿著臉盆洗起澡來。

你無法想見，這裡曾經人聲、機器聲鼎沸，是一條條晝夜趕工出貨的生產線。極盛時期，
年營業額破新台幣十億元，相當於台灣一家上櫃公司，工廠的吳老闆在公明鎮是數一數二
的台商，還當上深圳公明鎮的台商會長，「生意忙碌時，我還買兩部賓士三百，掛上粵港
的兩地車牌，可以直接穿梭香港與深圳，專門接送客戶！」他說。

吳老闆當年從台中落腳在這裡，生產塑膠人造皮（PVC皮）給鞋廠與皮包廠，設廠後的
第一年，他就賺了人民幣上千萬元，於是他馬上買地擴廠，第二條、第三條，一條條生產
線不斷擴充，並且一連開了三個工廠。

但是環境變化了，而且快得讓他措手不及，尤其是去年六月十九日，中國財政部和國家稅
務總局調整上千項產品的出口退稅率，總項目約占海關稅則總數的三七％，堪稱調整規模
最大的稅改行動。也就是說，台商製鞋業、金屬加工業、家具業等傳統產業，將要因應退
稅率從原先的一三％，一口氣降到五％，被調降八個百分點。然而，許多台商毛利從沒超
過八％。

但，中國官方給的緩衝期有多久？答案竟然是七月一日就要實施。只有十一天緩衝期！

對於吳老闆來說，虧了八％，就等於十億營業額一年要少八千萬。年紀也老了，股東跟兒
子都沒有意願接手！痛苦掙扎之下，他決定把工廠給收了。他沒選擇逃跑，仍留在工廠內
跟這些民工為伍，等待賣工廠土地的最後手續完成，可以拿到人民幣兩千多萬元，相當於
新台幣一億元。這是他當海峽邊緣人，打拚十九年所累積的最大一筆財富。

關門的工廠不只如此，來到被稱為「世界鞋城」的東莞，人人都在談哪家鞋業廠倒閉了。
根據中國的亞洲鞋業協會統計，光是東莞，去年以來鞋廠倒閉的有兩百多家，其中常登是
最受矚目的工廠之一。

體質好的也想走　解散員工、廠房出租，設備當廢鐵賣

常登原是一家賺錢的公司，一九八九年前往中國設廠的常登鞋廠，是專門替國際大品牌代
工的運動鞋廠，員工數有四千名，「常登體質好、管理也好！」同業貫銓企業董事長曾毅
祥說。但鞋界人士說，鞋廠已經是東莞當地政府不歡迎行業，最好的出路是遷離，寶成加
碼越南與印尼，女鞋大王恆豐集團轉戰越南，但常登下個世代接班人意願低，只好走向關
門一途，重新做別的生意。

一樣是好公司、資金雄厚，關門的，從深圳往東莞到處都有，我們見到寶來電器董事長林
錦標（見商周一○四八期：鞋王、燈飾王、馬達大亨紛紛進住帝寶），這位神秘台商的工
廠也關門了。一九九○年他進軍中國設廠，從貿易商變成工廠老闆，十八年間，員工從五
百人成長到五千人，林錦標建立了燈飾生產的王國，也累積他購買台灣第一豪宅的財富。

「形勢非常嚴峻，有一半以上台商逃不過這一波！」林錦標說，他決定退出工廠經營，設
備當成總重一百五十公噸的廢鐵賣掉，工廠租給當地人，自己只留下五百個人做採購與出
貨的工作，其餘四千多個工人全部解散。林錦標又從工廠老闆變成貿易商。

下個十年在哪？曾經帶動繁榮的公路，成為逃亡路線

過去二十年，廣深公路上每天都有川流不息的大貨車和聯結車，運送各種原料和產品進出
香港與深圳鹽田港，塞車、燈火通明與徹夜加班是常態。這條一百二十二．八公里長道路
的沿線風景，從昔日荒蕪的小漁村以及滿山遍野的荔枝樹，演變到如今的繁華樓市，台
商，扮演了重要的推手。

一九九九年最高峰時，這裡是台灣最大的海外生產基地。三千七百多家台資企業，三、四
萬名台商老闆和幹部，以工廠為家，流血流汗，卻也帶著幹勁，經營他們的事業夢想，也
帶動東莞與廣深公路沿線大小城鎮的經濟活力。

三班制的工人，台商聘請上百萬名勞工，工廠機器二十四小時運轉，工廠外，商店一家、
一家開，甚至還有攤販雲集成夜市，等著夜班工人下工吃消夜。檳榔、拖鞋、ＫＴＶ也隨
著台商引入，成為重要文化。一把把陽傘、一雙雙運動鞋，一顆顆的電腦零件，都從台商
的工廠，踏上這條公路走到世界。

如今，一樣的公路，走的卻不是貨物，而是一個個不告而別的台商。二十年過去了，他們
的氣勢不再磅礡，優惠與低廉勞力不再存在，下個十年在哪裡？有人逃回台灣，有人遷廠
到越南，許多人還很茫然……。

http://epaper.pchome.com.tw/archive/last.htm?s_date=old&s_dir=20080603&s_code=0041&s_cat=#c613966

[Guest]

工商時報2008.06.14
運費高漲 美國海外廠回流
【林國賓／綜合外電報導】

　華爾街日報周五報導，由於油價大漲，貨物運輸成本跟著飆升，美國企業大呼吃不
消之餘，不是將海外廠房重新遷回美國，不然就是凍結赴海外設廠的計畫，使得過去1年
來美國廠房大量外移的趨勢已出現放緩的跡象。

　報導指出，美國一家專門製造運動員暖身器的知名未上市公司DESA，最近剛剛將
中國的製造業務遷回到肯塔基州，該公司的零售電熱器部門總裁海斯表示：「遷廠的原因
是從中國到美國的貨櫃運輸成本一直在漲，且預料未來還會再漲。」

　海斯表示，一只標準40呎貨櫃從中國運到美國的海運運費，光是今年1月以來已經
調漲15％，達5,300美元左右，而且下個月準備再漲到5,600美元，公司很幸運還保有
肯塔基的生產設備，「1年半前看似是公司的包袱，如今卻是一項很好的資產。」

　美國製造業廠房外移前前後後已歷時30年，透過不斷的將製造業務移往海外低成本
的國家，為美國經濟帶來好壞參雜的影響，最大的好處是消費者可享有價格愈來愈低廉的
產品，但壞處是就業機會也一併外移，廠房外移的趨勢更在過去10年達到最高峰。

　但根據華爾街日報指出，由於油價大飆漲，此一移廠潮已經降溫，多倫多CIBC全
球市場首席經濟學家魯賓表示，自2000年以來一只標準40呎貨櫃從亞洲運往美國東岸的
運輸成本已經漲了2倍， 預估當油價漲到每桶200美元時，該成本還會再增加1倍。

　魯賓在日前撰寫的研究報告中指出：「在3位數油價的時代，距離就代表要花更多
的成本。」他預估，2000年油價每桶20美元時，進口至美國港口貨物的運輸成本僅約是
關稅的3％，但現在已攀升到9％。

　除了油價，全球製造業正深陷生產成本不斷飆高的衝擊，包括鋼鐵與樹脂等各種原
物料成本上漲外，還有員工工資的上揚。加州東方海外貨櫃航運公司泛太平洋西向貨運副
總裁薩尼納里表示，他已聽說部份美國客戶正將廠房遷回美國，預估未來5年會有相當多
的美國企業會跟進。

http://news.chinatimes.com/CMoney/News/News-Page/0,4442,content+120602+122008061400592,00.html

Factories bring jobs home amid soaring transport costs
by The Wall Street Journal
Friday June 13, 2008, 7:17 AM

The rising cost of shipping everything from industrial-pump parts to
lawn-mower batteries to living-room sofas is forcing some manufacturers
to bring production back to North America and freeze plans to send even
more work overseas.

"My cost of getting a shipping container here from China just keeps going
up -- and I don't see any end in sight," says Claude Hayes, president of
the retail heating division at DESA LLC. He says that cost has jumped
about 15 percent, to about $5,300, since January and is set to increase
again next month to $5,600.

The privately held company, known for making the heaters that warm
football players on the sidelines, recently moved most of its production
back to Bowling Green, Ky., from China. Hayes says the company was
lucky to have held onto its manufacturing machinery. "What looked like an
albatross a year and a half ago," he says, "today looks like a pretty good
asset."

The movement of factories to low-cost countries further and further away
has been a bittersweet three-decade-long story for the U.S. economy,
knocking workers out of good-paying manufacturing jobs even as it drove
down the price of goods for consumers. But, after exploding over the past
10 years, that march has been slowing.

The cost of shipping a standard, 40-foot container from Asia to the East
Coast has already tripled since 2000 and will double again as oil prices
head toward $200 a barrel, says Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC
World Markets in Toronto. He estimates transportation costs are now the
equivalent of a 9 percent tariff on goods coming into U.S. ports, compared
with the equivalent of only 3 percent when oil was selling for $20 a barrel
in 2000.

Transportation costs are just part of a larger wave of inflation sweeping
global manufacturing, which has also been pounded by higher costs for
basic materials, such as steel and resins.

The cost of doing business in China in particular has grown steadily as
workers there demand higher wages and the government enforces
tougher environmental and other controls. China's currency has also
appreciated against the dollar -- though not as much as some critics
contend it should -- increasing the cost of its products in the U.S.

Edward Zaninelli, vice president of trans-Pacific westbound trade at Orient
Overseas Container Lines in San Ramon, Calif., a major shipping line,
says he's heard from customers who are moving production back to the
U.S., including a maker of steel plans for car engines.

"I believe a decent amount of production could come back into the States
within five years, not everything," he says. "But it won't be because of
transport costs -- it'll be because other production costs have gone up and
companies have realized they can have better control over their
production when it's closer to home."

For many manufacturers, though, oil prices that have hurtled past $130 a
barrel have been the tipping point.

Emerson, the St. Louis-based maker of electrical equipment, recently
shifted some production of items such as appliance motors from Asia to
Mexico and the U.S., in part to offset rising transportation costs by being
closer to customers in North America.

Edward Monser, the company's chief operating officer, says logistics costs,
which include all the expenses associated with moving goods, became a
worry about a year ago.

"That's when it became a dominant part of the discussion," he says,
adding that oil then was less than $100 a barrel. "So with oil now at $130,
it's even more serious." Monser says Emerson's larger strategy is to
regionalize manufacturing, producing as much as possible within the part
of the world where its sold.

But moving production closer to markets won't avoid all the problems
surcharges on domestic shipments by truck and train. And already
congested domestic transportation systems may have difficulty handling a
sudden upswing in demand from manufacturers buying and moving more
raw materials and other supplies over U.S. rails and highways.

Moreover, in certain industries the advantages derived from offshore
production continue to trump higher transportation costs.

Electronics firms, for instance, are now clustered in Asia and gain a major
benefit of proximity to one another.

While many manufacturers are re-evaluating production strategies, there
are limits to how many jobs will flow back to the U.S. One problem is that
much of the basic infrastructure needed to support many industries -- such
as suppliers who specialize in producing parts or repairing machines --
has dwindled or disappeared.

U.S. job losses in manufacturing have averaged 41,000 a month so far
this year -- nearly double the pace last year, with sectors such as autos
and construction materials tied to the housing slump especially hard hit. In
essence, every job added as a result of companies pulling work back
home is being more than offset by others reeling from the domestic
slump.

Higher fuel costs "may slow the outsourcing of goods in the future, rather
than causing a massive shift back of those things that have already been
outsourced," says Daniel Meckstroth, an economist at the Manufacturers
Alliance/MAPI, a public policy group in Arlington, Va.

A prime example is Craftmaster Furniture in Taylorsville, N.C. The
company, bought two years ago by a Chinese manufacturer, once
intended to shift 40 percent of its U.S. production to China by the end of
this year or early next year. With the planned move only about half done,
that exodus has stopped cold.

"We're getting hit with increases up and down the system," says Roy
Kalcain, the company's president. "It's changing our whole equation for
where we produce." As recently as a year ago, Kalcain says he was saving
15 percent when he assembled sofas in North Carolina using kits of fabric
that were pre-cut in China. Those savings are now only 7 percent or 8
percent.

When savings fall to far less than 15 percent, it gets harder to justify
having the work done in distant Chinese factories that take 12 weeks to
deliver products.

The higher costs are particularly problematic for lower-value goods: The
cheaper a product, the more significant transportation costs are in the final
price. That may help explain why Chinese exports of such
"freight-sensitive" goods to the U.S. are now falling for the first time in
more than a decade, according to CIBC's Rubin.

Bremen Castings Inc., a family-owned foundry in Bremen, Ind., is seeing
a wave of customers bringing work back from China and other low-cost
countries.

Last month, a pump manufacturer, which had moved more than $1 million
worth of metal-casting work from Bremen to China two years ago, called
"to reactivate everything," says J.B. Brown, the foundry's president. "They
told me the cost of transport from overseas was the straw that broke the
camel's back -- and they said they didn't see it going back down any time
soon."

And the heavier and bulkier goods are, the more sensitive they are to fuel
costs. CIBC's Rubin predicts Mexico will be "the biggest winner of all" as
increased transportation costs make China uncompetitive in an
ever-growing list of businesses in North America. Even Mexico may be too
far for some companies.

Last fall, Crown Battery Manufacturing Co. decided to close a plant it
bought in Reynosa, Mexico, and move the jobs to its Ohio home base,
adding 25 workers to the 400 it already employed.

"We're shipping batteries, which are big and heavy," says Hal Hawk, the
company's chief executive.

Mr. Hawk estimates shipping to customers, who tend to be clustered in the
Midwest, was adding 5 percent to 10 percent to the cost of the
Mexican-made batteries, which he says also suffered from quality-control
problems. The smallest batteries are 20-pounders for lawnmowers, but
they also make 29,000-pound giants for running underground mining
machines in places like southern Illinois.

"They were traveling 2,000 miles to get to those major customers," says
Hawk, and all indications are that fuel surcharges on the trucks would just
keep growing.

-- The Wall Street Journal (Associated Press)

http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2008/06/factories_bring_jobs_home_amid.html

[Guest]

愛荷華500年最大水患　主要玉米產區泡水衝擊糧價
2008/06/16 09:31
國際中心／編譯

美國愛荷華州日前遭受500年來最大的水患，而洪水已在昨（15）日慢慢退去，居民們
也開始返回家園，但部分社區內，積水仍然相當嚴重，由於愛荷華州是全美第一大玉米
生產區，是否會帶動糧食價格上漲，成為國際間關注的焦點。

洪水雖然已經慢慢退去，但在愛荷華州第大二城市賽達湍市，可以看到部分社區的房子，
幾乎有3分之2已經泡在水中，而在首府第摩因市，街道上也是積 水盈尺，四處都是垃
圾，返家清理家園的居民們，看到房子泡水都相當難過。一位居民表示，「這就像你失去
生活中的一部分，代價就是你的房子，我們一直生活在這裡，所以真的很心痛。」

受到暴風雨的影響，愛荷華州遭受5百年來最大的水患，暴漲的河水沖垮河堤，造成市區
淹水相當嚴重，光是賽達湍市就有將近2萬5千人撤離，災情不下於卡崔娜風災。

目前積水慢慢退去，政府也著手展開清理工作，由於飲用水的集水井遭到污染，政府已經
呼籲居民節約用水，而愛荷華州是全美玉米的主要種植區，目前農作物損失仍難以估計，
但是否會造成糧食價格上揚，成為國際間關注的焦點。

http://www.nownews.com/2008/06/16/334-2290179.htm

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa (Reuters) - Overflowing rivers in Iowa and other
Midwest states forced evacuations and disrupted the region's economy on
Friday with fears of worse to come from fragile levees and more rain.

"Nearly one third of Iowa is already under water and water levels continue
to rise," The National Weather Service called flooding in Cedar Rapids a
"historic hydrologic event" Thursday as the river over-topped its banks at
500-year flood levels, forcing the evacuation of nearly 4,000 homes.

Iowa is usually the top U.S. corn and soybeans growing state and is a
major producer of hogs and cattle.

Crop losses could spur price rises for everything from food to fuels, like
corn-based ethanol, and play into growing fears of inflation threatening the
already battered U.S. economy.

Last week, the price of corn rose above $7 a bushel on the commodities
market for the first time, and soybeans rose sharply, too, reacting to the
harsh weather hampering crop production across the Midwest. In addition
to Iowa, the farming states of Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin and Minnesota
have suffered an unusual level of flooding this year.

Soaring global demand in addition to the increased use of corn for ethanol,
an alternative fuel, have shrunk the worldwide supply of staples that are
the core of practically every continent’s diet.

Meanwhile, the price of oil has jumped, raising the cost of producing crops
and feeding livestock and causing an increase in grocery bills here and
abroad, sparking riots and protests in at least two dozen countries.

At a moment when corn should be almost waist-high here in Iowa, the
country’s top-producing corn state, more than a million acres have been
washed out and destroyed.

Beyond that, agriculture experts estimate that 2 million acres of soy beans
have been lost to water, putting the state’s total grain loss at 20 percent
so far, with the threat of more rain to come.

“The American farmer, we feed the world,” Mr. Timmerman said. “We’re
going to be short on corn and we’re going to be short on soybeans.”

He continued, “It’s heart-wrenching.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/17/us/17Flood.html
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080613/ts_nm/usa_flooding_dc

[Guest]

Market Dispatches6/18/2008 1:40 PM ET
By Charley Blaine and Elizabeth Strott

The Dow is off more than 120 points. Financial stocks sag on Morgan
Stanley's profit drop. Surging fuel costs slam FedEx and force Northwest
and United to make more cuts. Southwest's hedges on oil prices pay off.
Boeing's appeal of an Air Force tanker contract is a winner.

<===========================================>

Shipping giant FedEx (FDX, news, msgs) said soaring jet fuel costs caused
a loss in its most recent quarter, and things won't get much better anytime
soon, the company said.

The fuel rise is also weighing on the airline industry, as UAL's (UAUA,
news, msgs) United Airlines and Northwest Airlines (NWA, news, msgs)
announced cutbacks in both capacity and workers.

And auto dealer CarMax (KMX, news, msgs) said gasoline prices and
tightening credit were hitting its sales. Worse, the prices it gets for used
vehicles are falling because no one wants to buy trucks and SUVs. Its
stock was down nearly 13% at 1:25 p.m. ET

FedEx this morning reported a fiscal-fourth-quarter loss of 78 cents per
share, down from a profit of $1.96 per share in the same period a year
ago. Excluding charges, FedEx earned $1.45 per share, down from $1.90
per share a year ago. Analysts had expected earnings of $1.47 per share.

FedEx's near-term outlook is pretty grim. The company said it expects
fiscal-first-quarter earnings of between 80 cents and $1 per share, well
below a previous forecast of $1.25 per share. The company also forecast
fiscal 2009 earnings of between $4.75 and $5.25 per share, far lower than
a previous forecast of $5.84 per share.

"Record high fuel prices and the weak U.S. economy dampened volume
growth and substantially affected our bottom line," said Chief Executive
Officer Frederick Smith in a press release.

United, Northwest to cut capacity, jobs
The high price of oil is taking a heavy toll on the airline sector, as well.

United Airlines this morning said that 1,400 to 1,600 jobs will be
eliminated. The airline, which estimated that its fuel bill for the year would
rise nearly 60% to $9.5 billion, also said it is reducing fourth-quarter
domestic capacity by 13.5% to 14.5%. It will also permanently ground 100
aircraft.


http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/080618markets.aspx

[Guest]

Mississippi flood disaster 'could spark global food inflation'
By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 3:28 PM on 19th June 2008


The Mississippi River surged past levees and spilled into farms, small
towns and parkland on Thursday, adding to billion-dollar losses that have
ignited global food inflation fears.

More than two dozen levees on the key U.S. commercial waterway have
either overflowed or been breached, causing grain and meat prices to
soar on concerns about short supplies.

Corn prices retreated early on Thursday, having set record highs for two
weeks on flooding that has submerged or stunted crops on millions of
acres.

Estimates are that 5 million acres of farmland across the Midwest have
been ruined and will not produce a crop this year.

The prospects of smaller crops have jolted commodity markets, food
producers and exporters.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1027758/Mississippi-flood-disaster-spark-global-food-inflation.html